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Debt with Chinese Characteristics

As China's local debt mounts, solutions are hard to come by

01·08·2014

Debt with Chinese Characteristics

As China's local debt mounts, solutions are hard to come by

01·08·2014

If you line up China’s recently counted 17.9 trillion yuan ($2.95 trillion) in debt with 100RMB notes (15.5cm*7.7cm) it would form a line that stretches 1.4 million kilometers (856,000 miles) long. That is the debt guaranteed by local governments. On December 30th, 2013, China’s National Audit Office (NAO) announced this amount, claiming the governments owed 10.9 trillion yuan ($1.8 trillion), with an added 2.7 trillion yuan in explicit debt and 4.3 trillion yuan in implicit debt, leading to the final figure of 17.9 trillion yuan, or about a third of China’s GDP.

The debt and the land

Over the past three decades, China has often achieved double-digit annual economic growth, so where did all these debts come from? Based on a report from The Wall Street Journal, the high economic growth, to a large extent, depended on local government expenditures on construction projects. But, in 2008, such construction became heavily reliant on loans.

According to the official reporting from NAO, China’s local government debt has a close connection with land. By the end of 2012, 11 provinces, 316 municipal cities and 1,396 townships had a commitment to repay 3.48 trillion debt via land revenue, accounting for 37.23% of the total debt (9.36 trillion).

This means, “Only if the land prices rise enough to cover the development costs, can the local governments repay the debt,” says the famous financial commentator and columnist Ye Tan.

Keeping land prices rising is a dangerous precedent, obviously, but it seems many local governments don’t have time to question this methodology. Professor Chen Yulu’s opinion is stated in his China, Her Financial History (《中国是部金融史》, “If currency can’t flow into the high-profit creative industry, it falls to land (trade) to transform into wealth (or perhaps a bubble wealth); it will form a vicious circle.” In other words, land gets more money and draws more cash until over investment or over-construction.

Ghost Cities

Owing to over-construction, many 3rd and 4th-tier Chinese cities are becoming “ghost cities”, where the newly constructed city neighborhoods remain unoccupied long after they are built. Inner Mongolia’s Erdos and Erenhot, Jiangsu’s Changzhou, and Hubei’s Shiyan are all on the list.

The debt and the shadow bank

It’s obvious that the local governments can’t depend on ghosts to loosen their purse strings, so they look for another way to repay the debt, turning to China’s growing, dangerous, but increasingly regulated shadow banking.

shadow-bank-local-debt

Sources: China’s National Audio Office
The Wall Street Journal

The Wall Street Journal made a comparative investigation on the local governments’ debt categories.Compared to the end of 2010, loans from  shadow banking account for 2.0 trillion. The generous cushion provided for investors is that  loans from  shadow banking typically carry higher interest rates than those from banks, often in excess of 10%, which will lead to more debt.

What’s more,“Intertwined with the under-regulated and poorly managed shadow banking business, slowing economic growth and more liberalized markets, systemic financial risks are increasing,” Chang Jian, a Hong Kong-based economist at Barclays, wrote in a December 31st piece. (from Bloombery “Shadow Banking Risks Exposed by Local Debt Audit: China Credit “)

Two behavior moods toward debt crisis

In Chinese folklore:  “When you’re covered with lice, you don’t itch; when you’re up to your ears in debt, you stop worrying.”(虱多不痒,债多不愁。)or “Dead pigs will not worry about being scalded by hot water.” (死猪不怕开水烫).

But, perhaps this comic offers yet another way:

comic-for-local-debt

Image source: ifeng (凤凰网)

 

 

1.有人说中国政府地方债务已经失控

Yǒurén shuō zhōngguó zhèngfǔ dìfāng zhàiwù yǐjīng shīkòng.

Some people say that Chinese local government debt is out of control.

2.官员称这种说法耸人听闻

Guānyuán chēng zhè zhǒng shuōfǎ sǒngréntīngwén.

Officials said this argument is totally unbelievable.

3.我该信谁的?

Wǒ gāi xìn shuí de?

Whom should I believe?

4.在中国当然要信政府的,除了房价

Zài zhōngguó dāngrán yào xìn zhèngfǔ de, chúle fángjià.

In China, without a doubt, you should trust the Chinese government, except on the matter of housing prices.

5.即使发生最坏的结果,地方政府难以偿还债务

Jíshǐ fāshēng zuì huài de jiéguǒ, dìfāng zhèngfǔ nányǐ chánghuán zhàiwù.

If it gets worse, it’ll be difficult for the local government to repay its debt.

6.按中国特色的发展模式,容易将债务分摊到全社会

Àn zhōngguó tèsè de fǎ zhǎn móshì, róngyì jiāng zhàiwù fēntān dào quán shèhuì

According to the characteristics of Chinese development, it’s easy to allocate the debt to the entire society.

 

Master image courtesy of  China.org.cn